FIRST TO SCORE:
MLB Baseball Analytics
First to Score is an MLB Baseball Analytics research project presented by Sparkline Sports, exploring how scoring first influences winning across more than 26,000 MLB games.
MLB Baseball Research & Insights / First to Score
1. MLB Baseball Research: Five Seasons.
One Remarkably Consistent Pattern.
Scoring first has long been considered an advantage in baseball. But how consistently does the advantage translate to winning?
An analysis of the 2022-2026 MLB regular season shows that teams that scored first won 67.7% of the time.
The five-year results tell a compelling story. Despite changes in team personnel, pitching performances, offensive production, and playing conditions, the relationship between scoring first and winning remained remarkably consistent.
The question is no longer simply whether scoring first matters. It's understanding when and why that advantage becomes more powerful.
The five-year results establish the foundation. The real discoveries emerge when the data is
examined more closely- by inning, home-field advantage, pitching performance, and the teams that consistently turn the first run into a victory.
2. When Does Scoring First Matter Most?
The five-year results establish that scoring first provides a significant advantage. But that advantage is not equally powerful in every game.
When the first run crosses home plate, where the game is played, and the circumstances surrounding that first score can dramatically change the likelihood of winning.
The research reveals that understanding when a team scores first can be just as revealing as knowing who scores first.
Of the 12,148 games analyzed, 5,984 - nearly half- saw the first run scored in the opening inning. Teams scoring first in those games won 66.1% of the time.
As the game progresses, the advantage generally increases. When the first run wasn't scored until the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning, FSWG rates climbed above 80%.
Although these late-inning scenarios occur far less often, their elevated FSWG rates show how the advantage shifts as fewer innings remain. Interpret these results with caution given the smaller sample sizes.
But timing tells only part of the story. The next question is whether the advantage of scoring first changes depending on which team is playing at home.
3. Does Home Field Change the Advantage?
Home field advantage has long been part of baseball's competitive landscape. But does playing at home make scoring first even more valuable?
The 2022-2026 research examines how teams perform after scoring first, separating home and away results to see whether the game's location affects the likelihood of winning.
The results reveal a consistent pattern across all five seasons. While scoring first provides a substantial advantage regardless of location, teams playing at home appear better positioned to turn that first run into a victory.
Key Finding: Home teams that scored first recorded higher FSWG rates than away teams in all five seasons. The advantage was remarkably consistent, with home teams outperforming away teams by about 8 to 11 percentage points each year.
The results suggest that scoring first and playing at home are two advantages that can work together to increase a team's likelihood of winning.
But scoring first is only the beginning. Once a team takes the lead, something else becomes critically important: its ability to prevent the opponent from scoring more.
That raises another question: Which teams are best equipped to protect the first run?
4. The Power of Pitching Shutdowns
Scoring first creates an opportunity to win. Protecting that advantage requires pitching.
A pitching shutdown occurs when a team's pitching staff prevents the opponent from tying the game or taking the lead after its own team scores the game's first run, preserving that initial advantage through the final out.
The 2026 MLB season provides an opportunity to examine the relationship between a team's FSWG performance, its ability to shut down opponents, and its success in reaching the postseason.
Key Finding: The 2026 results reveal a compelling relationship between FSWG performance, pitching shutdowns, and postseason qualification. Playoff teams are heavily represented in the upper-right quadrant, where both FSWG rates and pitching shutdown totals exceed the league's team medians.
This pattern suggests that successful teams do more than score first. They combine the ability to gain an early advantage with the pitching performance needed to protect it.
Does this relationship extend beyond the regular season? When the competition intensifies in October, do the same scoring-first and pitching patterns help distinguish championship-caliber teams?
The postseason provides another opportunity to put the research to the test.
5. Does scoring First Matter More in October?
The postseason is baseball's ultimate test. With every game carrying greater significance, does scoring become even more important?
First to Score examines the relationship between scoring first, pitching shutdowns, and postseason success across multiple MLB seasons.
Coming Soon: 2026 Postseason Research Update
Following the conclusion of the 2026 World Series, we'll publish new findings examining how scoring first and pitching shutdowns influenced this year's postseason results.
6. The Test of Time: Has Scoring First Always Mattered?
Baseball has changed dramatically over the decades. Offensive production, pitching strategies, player development, and even the rules of the game have evolved.
But has the advantage of scoring first changed with them?
To answer the question, First to Score examines MLB seasons spanning more than 4 decades, comparing scoring-first outcomes across very different eras.
Across nearly four decades of baseball, the advantage of scoring first has remained remarkably consistent.
Despite changes in how the game is played, the relationship between scoring first and winning has remained surprisingly resilient.
Why has this relationship endured through so many changes in the game?
The complete analysis, including historical comparisons, changing offensive and pitching environments, and the factors behind this enduring advantage is explored in First to Score: The Hidden Power of Scoring First in MLB.
The Data Reveals the Pattern. The Book Explains the Power.
Across decades of baseball, one relationship continues to emerge: teams that score first win more often.
But the real story goes deeper.
First to Score: The Hidden Power of Scoring First in MLB explores more than 26,000 MLB games across 11 seasons, uncovering relationships between scoring first, pitching, home-field advantage, postseason success, and championship performance.
Discover the research behind the numbers.
Coming January 2027
